Why Democrats are betting big on a buck hunter

As Democrats nationwide search for authentically local candidates who can survive in red terrain, Sand represents their best hope of capturing Iowa's governorship for the first time since 2010. The 43-year-old state auditor is betting his hunting credentials and cultural fluency will insulate him from the "coastal elite" attacks that have doomed other Democrats in rural America.

Iowa moved hard right during the Trump years after serving as a presidential swing state through 2012. Republicans have mastered culture war politics here, with figures like Sen. Joni Ernst winning in 2014 by emphasizing her pig-farming background while painting her attorney opponent as an outsider.

Sand's campaign launched a "Hunting With Rob" microsite the day the expo opened, promising that "for the first time in Iowa history, hunters, sportsmen, conservationists, and outdoor enthusiasts alike will finally have an ally in the governor's office." At the expo, he dropped $134 on hunting gear while working the crowd of potential voters.

That quote came from Tom Buckroyd, a hunter wearing a "Crossbows Are Gay" T-shirt who spent 20 minutes talking hunting with Sand. The interaction encapsulates Sand's strategy of leading with cultural connection rather than partisan affiliation.

"We have this stupid, broken, two-choice political system," Sand told POLITICO while sampling barbecue venison jerky. "When you find someone that's in a party, but then also doesn't fit that story, I think for a lot of people that is a sign of realness or authenticity."

The only public poll, from October, showed Sand leading GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra 45-43 percent. National operatives in both parties view Iowa's governorship as genuinely competitive, making Sand a potential overnight sensation if he wins.

"If Rob wins, he will instantly be part of that conversation," said Tommy Vietor, President Obama's former Iowa press secretary, referring to 2028 presidential speculation.

Sand positions himself as a fiscally responsible watchdog who happens to love Casey's gas station pizza and attends church regularly. Before the hunting expo, he quietly attended chapel service, scrolling through a Contemporary English Version Bible on his phone.

Republicans aren't taking him lightly. Bob Vander Plaats, the influential evangelical leader, called Sand "dangerous" and the "best candidate" Democrats could field. "He's trying to come off as a more folksy, more accomplished Tim Walz," Vander Plaats said.

Sand's biography offers Republicans attack angles. He modeled in Milan and Paris during college — photos that may surface in GOP ads. His wealthy in-laws have contributed $7 million to his campaign, prompting Republican Chairman Jeff Kaufmann to note that "hardworking Iowans don't have the luxury of having a silver spoon feeding them their career."

"He hasn't really had to take very many positions," said David Kochel, a longtime Iowa Republican operative. "He's going to be forced at some point to either disavow the Democratic Party platform, which is going to piss off progressives, or he's going to have to accept the label of being a Democrat in Iowa and defend it."

Sand practices what he calls a "judge-not-lest-ye-be-judged" approach with voters. When talking to the man in the anti-gay T-shirt, Sand didn't lecture him. "I'm open about my support for gay marriage, for the gay community. He's probably seen me say that," Sand explained. "And he's not going to hear me back away from that."

Sand faces five Republicans in the June 2 primary, though Vander Plaats endorsed Adam Steen over frontrunner Feenstra, saying he hasn't "been impressed with Randy's campaign."

Sand didn't win the Big Buck contest at the expo, but as he carried his taxidermied deer head out by the antlers, an onlooker from Exira offered a different prize: "You're the next governor of Iowa!" The frozen stare of Sand's trophy buck seemed fixed on his potential new voters — Republicans included.